LUC
MICHEL’S GEOPOLITICAL DAILY
Vu des Usa : comment Israël a détruit
les accords sur le nucléaire iranien
Luc Michel
Jeudi 10 mai 2018 #
RESUME FRANÇAIS :
VU DES USA : COMMENT ISRAEL A DETRUIT
LES ACCORDS SUR LE NUCLEAIRE IRANIEN
(STRATFOR)
« Se faire enseigner par l’adversaire
est un honneur et un devoir »
- Général Karl Hausofer (1869-1946),
le géopoliticien des « Blocs
continentaux ».
"L'incertitude entourant l'accord
nucléaire va réaffirmer le désir de
Téhéran d'une politique de défense
solide qui inclut les activités mêmes
qui alimentent les craintes américaines:
le développement de missiles
balistiques, les opérations secrètes et
le soutien aux milices régionales"
- Stratfor Worldview (30 avril 2018).
Je donnais mon analyse hier sur le
retrait de la signature américaine sur
les Accords de Genève sur le nucléaire
iranien (1). Décision qui ne m’a pas
surprise parce que je la pronostiquais
dès décembre 2016 (2). Je suis surpris
par contre par toute cette tragi-comédie
médiatique et politique, en particulier
au niveau de Paris, sur une décision
prévisible et annoncée au cœur du
programme du candidat Trump. D’autant
plus surpris que Trump est le choix d’un
scénario politique, le choix précisément
des lobbies opposés à cet accord,
coalisés par le Likoud israélien et
l’AIPAC.
J’expliquais hier comment la crise entre
Washington et Téhéran n’était pas entre
deux fronts opposés, mais entre un
triangle géopolitique : Tel-aviv,
Washington, Téhéran. ET que dans ce
triangle, c’était le clan israélien qui
donnait le ton et la mesure. C’est l’Axe
Likoud-AIPAC qui a rallié Trump (le
terrain étant préparé par Jared Kuchner,
gendre de Trump, et dirigeant de l’aile
radicale de l’AIPAC, et Mike Pence, le
vice-président, l’un des hommes-liges du
Lobby pro-israélien depuis 30 ans) (3).
Et dès 2015 organisé le combat politique
et diplomatique, aux USA mêmes, mais
aussi au Proche-Orient et à Paris (voir
la position de Fabius à Genève), pour
détruire les Accords de Genève. Dans ce
triangle géopolitique, les intérêts des
USA passent après ceux de Tel-Aviv. Ou
plutôt de ceux d’Israël tel que le
Likoud les conçoit.
Mon principe absolu est qu’il ne sert à
rien de lire les amis, mais au contraire
qu’il faut lire l’ennenmi. « Se faire
enseigner par l’adversaire est un
honneur et un devoir », affirmait avec
raison le Général Karl Hausofer, le
géopoliticien des « Blocs continentaux
». Le Think Tank ‘Stratfor’ a
précisément publié ce 30 avril une
analyse de l’action israélienne qui a
conduit à la destruction des Accords de
Genève.
Précisément l’offensive de l’Axe
Likoud-AIPAC aux USA mêmes, vue des USA
…
«Stratfor» insiste sur le fait que « la
présentation de Netanyahu a été
partiellement conçue pour convaincre les
pays de l'Union européenne que le JCPOA
est insuffisant, mais il peut ne pas
avoir besoin de le faire. Le message de
Netanyahou a été coordonné avec les
États-Unis à l'avance, indiquant un
alignement de plus en plus clair entre
Israël et la Maison Blanche. Sur la base
de leur rhétorique, ils sont de plus en
plus convaincus des avantages de
l'abandon du JCPOA et du doublement des
efforts pour contrer les activités
régionales de l'Iran."
Derrière toute cette crise annoncée, il
y a une double volonté de confrontation,
voir de guerre, aussi bien à Whashington
(où les faucons de la CIA et du
Pentagone sont aux commandes avec Trump)
qu’à Tel-Aviv, contre l’Iran : "Les
récentes frappes aériennes israéliennes
contre les moyens iraniens en Syrie
suggèrent qu'Israël est tout à fait
disposé à défier l'Iran militairement.
Alors qu'il poursuit des stratégies pour
contrer les ambitions militaires et
nucléaires de l'Iran, Israël cherchera à
obtenir un soutien encore plus fort des
États-Unis.
Les Etats-Unis pourraient chercher à
réinstaurer des sanctions contre le
secteur bancaire et la banque centrale
iraniens, ce qui pourrait contraindre
les consommateurs européens et
asiatiques à réduire leurs importations
de pétrole iranien. Une baisse des
exportations iraniennes de pétrole
exacerberait la douleur que ressentent
déjà les citoyens iraniens à la suite de
problèmes liés aux devises et à
l'économie. "
# LUC MICHEL’S
GEOPOLITICAL DAILY/
SEEN FROM THE USA: HOW ISRAEL DESTROYED
AGREEMENTS ON IRANIAN NUCLEAR (STRATFOR)
LUC MICHEL (ЛЮК
МИШЕЛЬ) & EODE/
Luc MICHEL pour EODE/
Quotidien
géopolitique – Geopolitical Daily/
2018 05 09/
"Being taught by the enemy is an honor
and a duty"
-
General Karl Hausofer (1869-1946),
the geopolitician of the "Continental
Blocks".
“the uncertainty surrounding the nuclear
deal will reaffirm Tehran's desire for a
robust defense policy that includes the
very activities fueling U.S. fears:
ballistic missile development, covert
operations and support for regional
militias”
- Stratfor Worldview (April 30, 2018).
I gave my analysis yesterday on the
withdrawal of the American signature on
the Geneva Accords on Iran's nuclear
power (JCPOA) (1). This decision did not
surprise me because I was predicting it
as early as December 2016 (2). However,
I am surprised by all this media and
political tragi-comedy, especially at
the Paris level, on a foreseeable and
announced decision at the heart of the
Trump candidate. All the more surprised
that Trump is the choice of a political
scenario, the choice precisely lobbies
opposed to this agreement, coalesced by
the Israeli Likud and AIPAC.
I explained yesterday how the crisis
between Washington and Tehran was not
between two opposing fronts, but between
a geopolitical triangle: Tel Aviv,
Washington, Tehran. AND that in this
triangle, it was the Israeli clan that
set the tone and the measure. It was the
Likud-AIPAC Axis that rallied Trump (the
pitch being prepared by Trump's
son-in-law Jared Kuchner and leader of
AIPAC's radical wing, and Mike Pence,
vice-president, one of them). men of the
pro-Israel Lobby for 30 years) (3). And
from 2015 organized the political and
diplomatic fight, in the USA, but also
in the Middle East and Paris (see the
position of Fabius in Geneva), to
destroy the Geneva Accords. In this
geopolitical triangle, US interests go
beyond those of Tel Aviv. Or rather
those of Israel as the Likud conceives
them.
My absolute principle is that it is
useless to read the friends, but on the
contrary that we must read the enemy.
"To be taught by the adversary is an
honor and a duty," said General Karl
Hausofer, the geopolitician of the
"Continental Blocks," rightly. On April
30, the Think Tank 'Stratfor' published
an analysis of Israeli action that led
to the destruction of the Geneva
Accords.
Precisely the Axis Likud-AIPAC offensive
in the USA, seen from the USA ...
‘Stratfor’ insist that “Netanyahu's
presentation was partially designed to
convince countries in the European Union
that the JCPOA is insufficient, but he
may not need to. Netanyahu's message was
coordinated with the United States ahead
of time, indicating an increasingly
clear alignment between Israel and the
White House. Based on their rhetoric,
both are growing convinced about the
benefits of abandoning the JCPOA and
doubling down on efforts to counter
Iran's regional activities.”
Behind all this announced crisis, there
is a double will of confrontation, to
see of war, as well in Whashington
(where the hacks of the CIA and the
Pentagon are in command with Trump) than
in Tel Aviv, against Iran : “Recent
increased Israeli airstrikes against
Iranian assets in Syria suggest that
Israel is fully willing to challenge
Iran militarily. As it pursues
strategies to counter Iran's military
and nuclear ambitions, Israel will seek
an even stronger U.S. backing.
The United States could seek to
reinstate sanctions on Iran's banking
sector and central bank, which could
force European and Asian consumers to
reduce imports of Iranian oil. A decline
in Iranian oil exports would exacerbate
the pain Iranian citizens are already
feeling as a result of currency-related
and economic problems.”
# DOCUMENT/
“DID ISRAEL JUST KILL THE IRAN NUCLEAR
DEAL?”
(STRATFOR WORLDVIEW, APRIL 30, 2018)
Israel claims that Tehran held onto
research related to Iran's nuclear
weapons program and has lied to the
international community about its
intentions.
The announcement was timed to influence
the United States and the European Union
just days before the White House reaches
a May 12 deadline to issue sanctions
waivers in accordance with the terms of
the Iran nuclear deal.
Israel seeks stronger U.S. backing for
its bold military moves against Iran in
Syria by characterizing Tehran as
unreliable and ill-intentioned.
In a prime-time press conference from
Tel Aviv, Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu announced Israeli
intelligence had smuggled a cache of
evidence out of Iran. Dubbed Iran's
atomic archive, the 100,000 files
allegedly show that Tehran sought to
conceal a nuclear weapons program.
Throughout his presentation, Netanyahu
argued that Iran lied to the
international community — and to
watchdogs from the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) — about the
existence of a secret nuclear weapons
program and sensitive research that Iran
held on to for future use.
While much of what Netanyahu presented
has been said before — Israel and some
in the United States have accused Iran
of nuclear deception numerous times —
the Israeli premier argued that Iran
violated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran
nuclear deal, by failing to come clean
during 2015 talks with the IAEA. Just
days before a May 12 deadline for the
United States to issue sanctions waivers
to Iran as part of the JCPOA,
Netanyahu's presentation sought to
discredit Iran as a negotiating partner
in the eyes of the international
community.
The Big Picture
As the United States narrows in on
strategies to target and contain Iran's
regional activities, Washington's
crosshairs are focused more and more on
the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,
better known as the Iran nuclear deal.
The United States is trying to negotiate
stronger measures to supplement the deal
— thanks in part to lobbying efforts
from regional allies such as Israel —
but impinging on the nuclear deal will
not halt Iran's activity. Rather, as
Stratfor's Second-Quarter Forecast said,
the uncertainty surrounding the nuclear
deal will reaffirm Tehran's desire for a
robust defense policy that includes the
very activities fueling U.S. fears:
ballistic missile development, covert
operations and support for regional
militias.
Iran's Arc of Influence
European countries, including France and
Germany, recently voiced their concerns
about the full extent of Iran's
activities, but continue to support the
JCPOA as the best framework for
countering Iran's nuclear ambitions.
However, Israel is pressuring the
European Union to abandon the nuclear
deal and potentially even reinstate the
sanctions the deal lifted. To ensure
whatever sanctions levied against it are
ineffective, Iran is seeking to keep the
European Union and the United States
from uniting to throw their combined
weight behind them. But Netanyahu is
hoping that his portrayal of Iran as a
guilty party will galvanize opposition
to Iran in the West.
Netanyahu's presentation was partially
designed to convince countries in the
European Union that the JCPOA is
insufficient, but he may not need to.
Netanyahu's message was coordinated with
the United States ahead of time,
indicating an increasingly clear
alignment between Israel and the White
House. Based on their rhetoric, both are
growing convinced about the benefits of
abandoning the JCPOA and doubling down
on efforts to counter Iran's regional
activities.
Potential Outcomes
Here's what we're watching for moving
forward:
The European Union may be willing to
meet U.S. demands by forming a
supplemental agreement that imposes
sanctions designed to stop Iran's
regional activities and ballistic
missile program. But, even if the United
States withdraws from the original
agreement on the JCPOA by refusing to
approve sanctions waivers on May 12, the
European Union is unlikely to reissue
sanctions lifted by the JCPOA without
clear proof that Iran is not holding up
its side of the bargain.
Israel says it will submit its new
intelligence to the IAEA. If the files
contain concrete proof, the IAEA could
have a legitimate reason to request
access to inspect new sites, potentially
even military sites not originally
included in the JCPOA. If Iran is found
in violation of the JCPOA, the United
States will have an excuse to leave the
deal, which the current administration
believe is insufficient to contain the
full spectrum of Iran's regional
activities.
Recent increased Israeli airstrikes
against Iranian assets in Syria suggest
that Israel is fully willing to
challenge Iran militarily. As it pursues
strategies to counter Iran's military
and nuclear ambitions, Israel will seek
an even stronger U.S. backing.
The United States could seek to
reinstate sanctions on Iran's banking
sector and central bank, which could
force European and Asian consumers to
reduce imports of Iranian oil. A decline
in Iranian oil exports would exacerbate
the pain Iranian citizens are already
feeling as a result of currency-related
and economic problems.
(Stratfor Worldview, “Did Israel Just
Kill the Iran Nuclear Deal?”, April 30,
2018)
NOTES ET RENVOIS :
(1) See (in French) on LUC MICHEL’S
GEOPOLITICAL DAILY/
L’AXE TRUMP-LIKOUD-AIPAC CONTRE L’IRAN :
TRUMP SORT DES ACCORDS SUR LE NUCLEAIRE
IRANIEN ET REPREND LA BATAILLE DES
SANCTIONS CONTRE TEHERAN
sur
http://www.lucmichel.net/2018/05/08/luc-michels-geopolitical-daily-laxe-trump-likoud-aipac-contre-liran-trump-sort-des-accords-sur-le-nucleaire-iranien-et-reprend-la-bataille-des-sanctions-contre-teheran/
(2) See (in French) Luc MICHEL, EODE
THINK TANK/ LA PRESIDENCE TRUMP : VERS
UN NOUVEAU STADE DE L’IMPERIALISME
AMERICAIN …
sur
http://www.eode.org/eode-think-tank-la-presidence-trump-vers-un-nouveau-stade-de-limperialisme-americain/
(3) See (in French) Luc MICHEL, EODE/
GEOPOLITIQUE/ RENFORCEMENT DE L’AXE
WASHINGTON-TEL AVIV : TRUMP EST LE
PRESIDENT LE PLUS PRO-ISRAELIEN DE TOUTE
L’HISTOIRE
sur
http://www.eode.org/eode-geopolitique-renforcement-de-laxe-washington-tel-aviv-trump-est-le-president-le-plus-pro-israelien-de-toute-lhistoire/
LUC MICHEL (ЛЮК
МИШЕЛЬ) & EODE
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