LUC
MICHEL’S GEOPOLITICAL DAILY
Retour aux Balkans.
La situation géopolitique (vue des
Usa)...
Luc Michel
Lundi 9 avril 2018
RÉSUMÉ FRANÇAIS :
RETOUR AUX BALKANS. LA SITUATION
GEOPOLITIQUE (VUE DES USA)...
J’ai longuement traité la destruction de
la Yougoslavie (celle de Tito et celle
de Milosevic), qui a conduit à la
déstabilisation et à l’éclatement des
Balkans (1). Transformés en « ventre mou
» de l’Europe par les géostratèges
américains. Je suis encore revenu sur la
situation inquiétante de cette région
stratégique il y a quelques jours,
exposant les dangers potentiels et réels
des Balkans pour la sécurité européenne
(notamment les « cellules dormantes des
Balkans » djihadistes) (2).
Voici Georges Friedman (ex patron dThink
Tank ‘Stratfor’) qui étudie la situation
dans les Balkans et les rapports de
force géopolitiques pour son ‘Geopolitical
Futures’. Récemment j’étais confronté à
un analyste français empreint de cette «
géopolitique de l’émotion » (qui est
tout sauf de la Géopolitique) confondue
avec ses rêveries idéologiques, qui
affirmait « qu’il ne faut pas lire
Friedman ». Une position qui n’est pas
une faute mais un crime ! Car c’est
cette géopolitique « vue des USA » (3),
précisément, qui domine l’évolution de
ces « grands Balkans » (élargis dans la
vision US à la Grèce, à la Roumanie, à
la Bulgarie, à l’Adriatique et aux
Appenins) …
"Ce qui pourrait être qualifié en
Allemagne ou aux Etats-Unis d '"
instabilité politique "serait considéré
comme normal dans les Balkans, où
l'insécurité et la violence politique
sont trop fréquentes", interroge
Friedman. Mais, et c’est le point de vue
des USA et de l’OTAN, ce n’est pas la
déstabilisation des Balkans par les USA
et l’OTAN qui est responsable. Mais
l’arrivée de nouveaux acteurs, la Russie
et la Turquie (elle aussi membre de
l’OTAN) : « Les obstacles historiques de
la région auraient pu être surmontés si
l'Occident était encore la principale
puissance extérieure qui criait ‘halte
au feu’. Mais l'influence de l'Occident
dans les Balkans n'est pas ce qu'elle
était autrefois. Au lieu de cela, une
concurrence à trois entre l'Occident, la
Turquie et la Russie émerge ». Lisons
Friedman …
LUC MICHEL (ЛЮК
МИШЕЛЬ) & EODE/
Luc MICHEL
pour EODE/
Quotidien géopolitique –
Geopolitical Daily/
2018 02/
Making Sense of the Balkans
Apr 6, 2018
(click to enlarge)
What might qualify in Germany or the
United States as “political instability”
would be seen as business as usual in
the Balkans, where insecurity and
political violence are all too common.
Consider the following two examples. In
Montenegro, NATO’s newest member, two
car bombs exploded in the past seven
days and a major protest against
violence is being planned by a
Western-funded nongovernmental
organization for the weekend. In Kosovo,
just days after Kosovar forces arrested
and deported a Serbian government
official, the prime minister fired his
interior minister and his intelligence
chief for deporting six Turks accused of
being involved in the Gulenist movement,
which Turkey blames for the 2016
attempted coup, without his approval.
(The Kosovar president has refused to
accept the dismissal of the intelligence
chief, and he remains in his post.) In
other parts of the world, events like
these might attract attention. But in
the Balkans, they barely raise eyebrows.
The region’s historical obstacles might
have been overcome if the West were
still the primary outside power calling
the shots. But the leverage the West has
in the Balkans is not what it once was.
Instead, a three-way competition between
the West, Turkey and Russia is emerging.
The West realizes this and has tried to
respond. NATO has admitted Montenegro as
a member and wants to do the same with
Macedonia as soon as possible. As part
of a Western effort to isolate Russia
after the alleged spy poisoning in the
U.K., a number of Balkan states chose to
expel Russian diplomats. But efforts
such as these might well be too little,
too late. The EU cannot promise the same
kind of prosperity it was offering in
the early 2000s, and Russia has already
shown what a U.S. security guarantee is
worth.
Turkey is also a key NATO country, but
it has a different agenda in the region,
rooted both in its imperatives and its
history as a great power in southern
Europe. It is not powerful enough yet to
assert itself in the Balkans and has
bigger problems right now in Syria.
Still, Turkey is slowly building
political and economic influence in the
region. Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan felt sufficiently comfortable
with Turkey’s position to condemn
Kosovo’s prime minister for firing his
interior minister.
Russia’s position in the region is
stronger. It maintains a close working
relationship with Serbia and with
Republika Srpska, a predominantly
Serbian enclave in Bosnia that is
increasingly acting like an independent
entity. Serbia has flirted with the West
but cannot tolerate Kosovo’s
independence, and Russia’s need to
maintain Serbia as an ally has become
even more serious as the Intermarium
countries become more united against
Moscow.
The Balkans isn’t on the verge of chaos.
But developments in this part of the
world have to be understood differently
now in the context of a discredited EU,
a weak and desperate Russia, and an
ambitious but uncertain Turkey.
Political violence in Montenegro, the
lack of progress in Serbia-Kosovo
relations, Serbian riots in Kosovo, name
changes and other intrigue in Macedonia,
the deterioration of Bosnia’s tenuous
political structure and biker gangs
running amok are all par for the course
in the Balkans. But what is par for the
course in the Balkans can have
ramifications for the world simply by
virtue of the Balkans’ geography and
history. World War I started in the
Balkans. That is not to say World War
III will start there – it is merely to
say that every action has an equal and
opposite reaction, and as the strategic
context around the Balkans changes, so
too will the Balkans.
The post Making Sense of the Balkans
appeared first on Geopolitical Futures.
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LUC MICHEL (ЛЮК
МИШЕЛЬ) & EODE
* With the Geopolitician of the
Eurasia-Africa Axis:
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